Monday, April 25, 2005

Predictive Success etc...

By PVR Narasimha Rao

> I apologize if what I wrote was construed as malignment. This was not
> my intention as I had stated in the mail. When I meant SJC group, I
> was really referring to Shri Sanjay Rath alone. I am a beginner and
> looked around initially for proof of aptitude amongst various

Even if you were "really referring to Shri Sanjay Rath alone", I take an exception to your original assertion (that you did not find any correct predictions from the SJC group). Irrespective of your intetions, such discrediting in a public list is in poor taste.

Sanjay ji made a lot of correct predictions on mundane events. When Vajpayee government lost the confidence vote in April 1999, some big name astrologers were putting their money on Sonia Gandhi. But Sanjay ji predicted that Vajpayee would stay in power. At the time of Bill Clinton impeachment, Sanjay ji predicted that Clinton would remain in power. He made several successful predictions on Naveen Patnaik. He made many other correct predictions.

His only two failures in mundane astrology that I remember came last year. He (like many) judged the Indian elections incorrectly. He also went wrong on George W re-election, but I personally know that it was an emotional prediction than an astrological one. He and I spent one whole day at my home rectifying and judging the charts of Kerry and Bush. We came to the conclusion that Bush would win. But Sanjay ji went in front of a pro-Kerry crowd at a workshop and preidcted that Kerry would win. I had to then go against his prediction and predict a Bush victory.

Apart from these two wrong predictions last year, I am not aware of any wrong predictions by him. In individual horoscopy, I have personally seen a lot of amazing predictions by him.

> teachers. I found Shri KN Rao to be excellant and his books are
> remarkable. I did not find anyone else to be anywhere close to him
> based on publicly known predictions. This of course does not mean
> that Shri Sanjay Rath is not good or anything, just that I am not
> aware of his public predictions. I will also kindly request yourself/
> Sanjay Rath to post predictions on his website so that people can
> judge for themselves- this will also convince skeptics as well as
> bring more credibility to the field of astrology in general (the
> argument that people avoid predictions to avoid public fame and
> adulation is a very weak one).

Mundane horoscopy is lot less scientifically developed than individual horoscopy. Many times, correct data is not available. Moreover, several mundane predictions tend to have good odds too and not that amazing.

If the goal is to convince skeptics, individual horoscopy is a better candidate.

Let me suggest a simple challenge.

Can astrologers take up a challenge where rationalists would give them 50 accurate charts and give multiple choice questions involving events in those charts. For example, the question can be - when did the person marry? Answers can be (a) Apr 1990, (b) Aug 1991, (c) Jul 1993, (d) Sep 1994, (e) Feb 1995.

If a challenge like this is given, are we confident that we can score 45 out of 50?

I am not fully confident today, but I am hopeful of being able to take such a
challenge in not-too-far future.

Such structured challenges can serve the purpose of convincing skeptics more
than making some mundane predictions.

Anyway, we do make predictions from time to time on various yahoogroups.

> Your post on Kargil war was remarkable I should say. This happened
> more than 5 years ago and I would like to know about more
> predictions, how many of them turned out correctly etc. Puzzles are

I never counted them. Those who like me will remember my correct predictions and
those who dislike me will remember my incorrect predictions.

I have great failures such as Gore win and BJP re-election in 2004. But I have
some good predictions too. Bush re-election and Vajpayee re-election in 1999 are
perhaps not great predictions because they had a 50% chance. There are others
that were more credible. For example, when the Iraq war started, I did predict
on vedic-astrology yahoogroup when the Hussein govt would fall. Exactly during
that week, US entered Baghdad and took control of Baghdas. It happened so
quickly that nobody else seemed to have expected it. Many seemed to think
Baghdad would fall after 3-4 weeks, but I predicted a much quicker fall. After
September 11, I predicted the week in which US would attack Afghanistan and the
week in which Kabul would fall. Both were correct and they were predicted based
on Rudramsa Mandoola dasa of the lunar new year charts.

But there was far greater success for me in individual horoscopy than in mundane
horoscopy. There were many occasions when people told me that I told them
something would happen in so and so month or week and it happened. But most of
these things are private and not public. However, on vedic-astrology yahoogroup,
there were some examples.

> interesting but not necessarily proof of validity (at least on one
> occasion I used only common sense to arrive at the answer)

Well, I beg to differ. It depends on the puzzles. Some puzzles are easy to guess
and some are not. For example, one guy who lost his job posted a puzzle on
vedic-astrology list in the last week of January asking when he would get a job.
I and my students at Boston (it's in the class audio) saw his chart and said
that he would find a job in the coming week, that it would be a contract job and
that he would find a better permanent job during March 21-Apr 11. That guy
confirmed on v-a list that he got a contract job in the next week and he
confirmed to me by private mail that he got a better permanent job at the end of

This has a low random probability. I know several people who have been looking
for a job for months. The probability of finding a job within 10 days is not
high. To guess that it would be a contract job and that another permanent offer
would come in March 21-Apr 11 is not easy without some reasonable astrological
principles. Mind you, this was done with some small help by me by some guys who
started learning astrology last May.So they were relying on replicable
astro-principles more than on sadhana.

If you ask me, blind puzzles based on charts of normal people are a better way
to judge techniques than 50% probability predictions based on speculative charts
of public figures or nations.

> Let me also add that among the next generation astrologers, you are
> one of the most prominent ones. I will also make this prediction
> (without using any astrology) that in coming decades your
> contributions will equal or exceed that of BV Raman or KN Rao. I am

Thanks for your prediction, but the reason for my taking offense at your
discrediting remarks on the "SJC group" is not egoistic. I am not looking for
praises. My only interest is in perfecting my knowledge. The rest is all maya.
Recognition, name and fame are all just an illusion. True knowledge is the only
thing that is permanent and will accompany me into my next lives.

Different people operate under different circumstances and their contributions
cannot be compared. Also, in my opinion, nobody can come close to Dr Raman's
contributions. He belongs to a different level, like Varahamihira.

> also grateful for all the detailed and indepth clarifications that
> you have given in the past and continue to give, inspite of the busy
> life you lead.
> Once again I hope my questioning and healthy skepticism is not taken
> as criticism/defamement in any manner whatsoever - I state again that
> this was not my aim at all.

Well, question how a technique works and I will be glad to answer. Ask for
examples and I will be glad to show examples. But to question a whole group's
success based on your limited exposure to their work amounts to a propaganda and
unfair discrediting. Discussions on the success of individuals and groups are
usually a bad idea for public lists. They have scope for smear and
ill-intentioned propaganda. It is tough to distinguish smear from genuine
questioning, and it does harm to the image of the parties involved.

It also increase rajas in the parties involved. Instead, focussing on techniques
and not discussing successes of people increases sattva more.

> Best regards,
> -Vijay
> ps. I hope you will share with us your presentation at the seminar on
> financial astrology. My teacher RG Krishnan had also presented at the
> seminar.

I will try.

May Jupiter's light shine on us,

Brihaspati Gayatri, Vishwamitra/Gaathina Rishi Rig Veda 6.62.6